Information on the plenary lectures at EVA 2021
Determining causes for the changing probability of weather and climate extremes
Gabriele Clarissa Hegerl, University of Edinburgh
As climate changes, the frequency and intensity of weather extremes is changing as well. Recent damaging extreme weather and climate events raise questions about the link between climate change and extreme events. Studies of past and recent extreme events highlight the unique factors that contribute to each event as well as common contributing factors, and how a changing climate changes their intensity and frequency. This talk gives examples of interpretation of observed extreme events and model projections, using methods from comparison of tendencies between physically based climate models and observations, use of very large, targeted ensembles of simulations, to analysis of analogue observed situations. It will be discussed how these methods can be combined to shed light despite data uncertainty and sparse sampling.
Climatic extremes: current statistical challenges
Daniel Cooley, Colorado State University
Gabi Hegerl, University of Edinburgh
Gabi Hegerl has a Ph. D in applied mathematics (numerical fluid dynamics) who focuses on identifying the drivers and mechanisms of observed climate change. Gabi published some of the first studies determining that recent warming is statistically different from climate variability, and pioneered a method that distinguishes between possible causes for climate change, such as greenhouse gas increases or changes in the sun. Gabi’s recent work has shown that human influences have changed global precipitation patterns and has made contributions to determining the causes of changing characteristics of extreme weather events. Gabi is co-leading the World Climate Research program’s grand challenge on extreme events, and of the lighthouse activity of safe landing spaces. She co-authored the US National Academies’ report on extreme event attribution. Gabi has had key roles in scientific assessments of climate change (IPCC), and is a fellow of the Royal Society, the American Geophysical Union, the American Meteorological Society, the Leopoldina and of the Royal Society of Edinburgh.
Dan Cooley, Colorado State University
Dan Cooley is a Professor in the Department of Statistics at Colorado State University. His research in extreme value analysis largely focuses on describing and modeling tail dependence and much of his research is motivated by quantifying risk associated with extreme weather events. He has been chair of the American Statistical Association's Committee on Climate Change Policy and was designated a Professor Laureate of CSU's College of Natural Sciences.