Upcoming events

ACM seminar: Jonathan Sherratt (Heriot-Watt)

Location: Bayes 5.10

Description: Determining the past and the future of vegetation in semi-deserts using mathematical modellingAbstract: Vegetation in semi-deserts has complicated dynamics, with a tendency to self-organise into spatiotemporal patterns. Given the lack of laboratory replicates, and the practical difficulties associated with fieldwork, mathematical modelling plays a key role in understanding these dynamics. I will discuss the ability of simple mathematical models of semi-desert vegetation to answer two questions: (i) can we determine the historical origin of patterned vegetation at a particular location? (ii) can we predict the future levels of vegetation? Both of these questions are made more difficult by the fact that ecological and environmental parameters do not on their own determine pattern wavelength, which depends also on the process leading to patterning -- a form of hysteresis. Nevertheless I will show that positive answers to both questions can be obtained by combining modelling with data on climate history and predictions of future rainfall levels from global climate models. I will use the Sahel region of sub-Saharan Africa as a case study to illustrate my results.[Joint seminar with Heriot-Watt University]