Impact in Society

Through our research we are impacting society and our national sustainability goals.

Interview: Mathematics and models in an uncertain world

Our Director of Sustainability Dr David Jordan spoke with Dr Chris Dent and Dr Amy Wilson about sustainable energy, data-driven modelling and COP26.

I think that there are many ways mathematicians can contribute to the addressment of climate change. One particular approach is around statistics and uncertainty. A large part of the problem is, firstly, understanding what the current situation is (in terms of the climate, energy systems, etc) and how we think that might evolve; then, secondly, there are the questions around what to do about it. Mathematics has a lot to contribute to both of these points. 

Read the full interview with Dr Chris Dent and Dr Amy Wilson

Projects

Optimal Outage Planning System

Electricity system outage planning is currently based on a worst-case scenario for each outage. There is limited accounting for the potential impact of increasingly changing system conditions due to the increase in renewable energy generation or of changes to one outage as a result of other outages. This project is providing a solution to the need for better integration of risk estimation into the planning optimization and will develop a tool that facilitates the most efficient economic decision-making from the year-ahead plan to three-weeks ahead, and identifies and tracks risks from year-ahead to day-ahead.

Read more about Lars Shewe's, Miguel Anjos' and Alemseged Weldeyesus' work here.

Can mathematics help support businesses in plastic reuse? 

A transition from a linear to a circular economy requires the ability to configure whole-systems, change practices and behaviour, deploy appropriate solutions, as well as understanding how these impact the system. A circular economy is a systemic approach to economic development designed to benefit businesses, society, and the environment. In contrast to the ‘take-make-waste’ linear model, a circular economy is regenerative by design and aims to gradually decouple growth from the consumption of finite resources.

Watch Dr Lars Schewe (from 34:30) hightling how making better decisions using mathematics can benefit a Cirular Economy approach during this KTN webinar recording Can maths help support businesses in plastic reuse? - KTN (ktn-uk.org)

Understanding Forest Damage: Finding Key Drivers to Help with Future Forest Conversion of Climate Sensitive Stands

Forests in Germany have been badly affected by drought stress heightened by climate change. Research indicates a strong association between drought stress and defoliation of the Spruce, Beech, Pine, and Oak trees. Defoliation rates in South Western-Germany are currently the highest since 2003, significantly damaging 46% of the forest area.

The state of Baden-Wuerttemberg wants to carry out a large-scale forest conversion by planting tree species which are resistant to drought and heat, to mitigate the effects of climate change.

The project will analyse yearly forest health monitoring data of the main species to identify the site characteristics (topography, soil, water budget and climate) which are associated with damage. A wide range of statistical methods will be used, including model checking, visualisation, cross validation methods, and resampling methods to investigate model/variable selection uncertainty.

The aim of this project was to use data to help answer the following questions:

• What are the causes of damage?
• What site characteristics create optimal conditions for forests?
• How much impact does each site characteristic have on forest conditions?

Islay Green Hydrogen Project

The Island of Islay, located off the west coast of Scotland, is both a region of whisky production and key target for industrial decarbonisation. Fuel oil and kerosene dominate current energy demand across the island, accounting for around 80% of total energy demand. The eight (soon to be nine) whisky distilleries on the island consume significant amounts of imported fuel oil which is used to produce heat in the distillation process. The greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with fuel oil use alone amount to around 48,000 tCO2e per year. Given the Scottish Government's commitment to achieve net-zero emissions by 2045, significant changes in how energy is generated, stored, and used, will be required on Islay.

Offshore wind turbines could provide the volume of power needed to help distilleries move to wider use of electric heating systems, supported with hydrogen generated via electrolysis locally. Hydrogen can also provide an alternative to diesel fuel for heavy goods vehicles (HGVs) and agricultural vehicles as these vehicles are replaced over time. There are several design choices to be examined. These include:

• Sizing of the wind farm and electrolysis unit to satisfy future expected demand from the distilleries and community;
• Examination and optimisation of H2 or energy storage options given the intermittency associated with the wind resource;
• Examination and optimisation of H2 transportation options.